Analyst: 10-12 mln '360s by Year-End

Analyst P.J. McNealy with Amtech Research said in a report today that Microsoft is on track to sell 6 million Xbox 360s by the end of June, and 10-12 million by year-end; expects PS3 announcements soon.

The mid-year forecast is greater than Xbox boss Peter Moore's January predictions of 4-5.5 million sold by the end of June.

McNealy said that although Microsoft had to withdraw its initial 90-day target of 2.7-3 million units sold, he believes it was "likely an inventory issue of 1-2 weeks, making it non-material."

He continued, saying that he is no longer concerned with any potential adverse effects that an Xbox 360 shortage would have on publishers' March-quarter results.

Amtech and McNealy also conducted a survey involving 125 retailers last week. Twenty-six of them had Xbox 360 units in stock, although all but five of them only had the non-hard drive Core units. Stores that did have the $400 Premium Packs late last week sold out of units very quickly.

The report still said that stores with consoles in stock only had a paltry 1-3 units each, with only two of the surveyed stores having decent stock; one with 10 Premiums, and one with seven Premiums and six Cores.

Establishments surveyed included large retailers such as Target, Wal-Mart and Best Buy, as well as specialty stores like GameStop/Electronics Boutique.

Also touched on in the report was the possibility of new PlayStation 3 information surfacing at upcoming events such as this week's Destination PlayStation event.

"We expect Sony to give some directional information on the PS3 about launch plans and pricing, but we believe it is more likely that Sony will keep its commentary to a high level about the PS3 rather than specifics. The keynote address is expected to be tomorrow morning," the report read.

The analyst also believes new Blu-ray announcements could be made at tomorrow's Blu-ray event in California, such as new movie studios that are adopting the format.